{"id":67610,"date":"2025-11-21T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/?p=67610"},"modified":"2025-11-21T15:22:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T21:22:27","slug":"ubs-preve-pausa-en-recortes-de-banxico-y-optimismo-por-el-t-mec-en-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/noticias\/economia\/ubs-preve-pausa-en-recortes-de-banxico-y-optimismo-por-el-t-mec-en-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS prev\u00e9 pausa en recortes de Banxico y optimismo por el T-MEC en 2026."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UBS prev\u00e9 que Banxico detenga los recortes de tasas a inicios de 2026 y cierre 2025 en 6.5%, ante un rebote inflacionario por nuevos impuestos \u201csaludables\u201d a refrescos, cigarros y apuestas que sumar\u00e1n 30 pb. Gabriela Soni, directora de UBS M\u00e9xico, explic\u00f3 que la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente por arriba del 4% y la debilidad en inversi\u00f3n privada limitan la flexibilizaci\u00f3n monetaria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pese al aplazamiento de aranceles a autos chinos, la IED r\u00e9cord (2% del PIB) no logra impulsar el crecimiento. UBS ajust\u00f3 su pron\u00f3stico: 1.4% en 2026 y 2.1% en 2027, con recuperaci\u00f3n lenta.Sobre el T-MEC, el banco es optimista: escenario base es renovaci\u00f3n con ajustes (mayor contenido regional) y solo 5% de probabilidad de retiro unilateral. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sin embargo, revisiones anuales 2026-2036 prolongar\u00e1n incertidumbre y frenar\u00e1n inversi\u00f3n. Soni advirti\u00f3 que la reforma judicial eleva primas de riesgo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UBS prev\u00e9 que Banxico detenga los recortes de tasas a inicios de 2026 y cierre 2025 en 6.5%, ante un rebote inflacionario por nuevos impuestos \u201csaludables\u201d a refrescos, cigarros y apuestas que sumar\u00e1n 30 pb. Gabriela Soni, directora de UBS M\u00e9xico, explic\u00f3 que la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente por arriba del 4% y la debilidad en inversi\u00f3n [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":67613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3795,17,390,186],"class_list":["post-67610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economia","tag-banxico","tag-economia","tag-mexico-3","tag-t-mec"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67610"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67616,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67610\/revisions\/67616"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.elchapucero.com\/portal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}